Independent associations between physical activity, adiposity categories and risk of incident cardiovascular disease
| n participants | n events | HRs (95% CI) | |||
| Model 1 | Model 1b | Model 1c | |||
| Adiposity measures | |||||
| Waist circumference categories (clinical cut-off) | |||||
| Low (<88 cm in women, <102 cm in men) | 52 543 | 1819 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| High (≥88 cm in women, ≥102 cm in men) | 18 287 | 976 | 1.51 (1.40 to 1.63) | 1.13 (1.01 to 1.26) | 1.11 (0.99 to 1.23) |
| Waist circumference for body mass index (BMI) residuals* | |||||
| Low | 28 993 | 894 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Medium | 29 486 | 1261 | 1.06 (0.97 to 1.16) | 1.05 (0.96 to 1.15) | 1.03 (0.95 to 1.13) |
| High | 12 351 | 640 | 1.21 (1.09 to 1.34) | 1.16 (1.04 to 1.29) | 1.13 (1.01 to 1.25) |
| BMI, categories | |||||
| Normal weight (18.5–24.9 kg/m2) | 28 991 | 824 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Overweight (25–29.9 kg/m2) | 29 463 | 1275 | 1.25 (1.15 to 1.37) | 1.20 (1.09 to 1.31) | 1.12 (1.02 to 1.23) |
| Obese (≥30.0 kg/m2) | 12 376 | 696 | 1.79 (1.62 to 1.98) | 1.60 (1.43 to 1.77) | 1.37 (1.23 to 1.53) |
| Physical activity measures | |||||
| Total physical activity tertiles of mg (median, range) | |||||
| High (35.9, 31.0–97.2) | 23 586 | 660 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Medium (27.7, 24.7–31.0) | 23 622 | 851 | 1.07 (0.97 to 1.19) | 1.02 (0.92 to 1.13) | 1.01 (0.91 to 1.12) |
| Low (21.4, 5.9–24.7) | 23 622 | 1284 | 1.33 (1.21 to 1.47) | 1.16 (1.05 to 1.29) | 1.13 (1.02 to 1.25) |
| Light-intensity physical activity tertiles of min/week (median, range) | |||||
| High (2794.3, 2390.4–5799.5) | 23 605 | 790 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Medium (2089.1, 1808.1–2390.3) | 23 615 | 916 | 1.03 (0.93 to 1.13) | 1.01 (0.91 to 1.10) | 1.00 (0.91 to 1.10) |
| Low (1489.0, 28.0–1808.0) | 23 610 | 1089 | 1.11 (1.01 to 1.22) | 1.04 (0.95 to 1.15) | 1.03 (0.95 to 1.13) |
| MVPA tertiles of min/week (median, range) | |||||
| High (511.9, 349.2–2999.7) | 23 579 | 825 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Medium (247.1, 164.1–349.1) | 23 628 | 894 | 1.17 (1.06 to 1.28) | 1.11 (1.01 to 1.22) | 1.09 (0.99 to 1.20) |
| Low (87.5, 0.0–164.0) | 23 623 | 1076 | 1.43 (1.31 to 1.57) | 1.23 (1.12 to 1.36) | 1.20 (1.09 to 1.32) |
| Vigorous-intensity physical activity tertiles of min/week (median, range) | |||||
| High (31.7, 13.1–756.7) | 23 369 | 680 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Medium (6.1, 2.8–13.0) | 23 827 | 914 | 1.14 (1.03 to 1.26) | 1.08 (0.97 to 1.19) | 1.06 (0.96 to 1.17) |
| Low (1.0, 0.0–2.7) | 23 634 | 1201 | 1.42 (1.29 to 1.57) | 1.25 (1.13 to 1.39) | 1.21 (1.10 to 1.34) |
Model 1 was adjusted for age (used as timescale in the model) and sex. Model 1b was adjusted as Model 1 plus ethnicity, education, living with partner, employment, Townsend Index, diet quality, alcohol intake, smoking, depression. Waist circumference and BMI models were adjusted for MVPA. Waist circumference was adjusted for BMI (continuous). Model 1c was adjusted as model 1b plus type 2 diabetes, hypertension and statins medication.
*We regressed waist circumference on BMI and used the residuals to create an index of central adiposity independent of total adiposity. Residuals were used to categorise the participants as having low, medium and high waist circumference-for-BMI based on the sex-specific distribution of normal weight, overweight and obese BMI categories.
MVPA, Moderate-to vigorous-intensity physical activity.